The Director’s Annual Lecture 2026

The Director’s Annual Lecture 2026 - Chatham House

1. Summary:

In her annual lecture, Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox discusses the tumultuous state of the world, characterized by rising superpower competition, particularly between the US and China. She highlights how US policy under President Trump has brought about a "revolution" and how the actions of both superpowers are creating threats to the peace and prosperity of others. Maddox outlines the challenges facing the UK, the need for other nations to respond strategically, and the importance of upholding international law. She emphasizes the need to strengthen existing institutions and build new ones.

2. Key Takeaways:

* **Superpower Competition:** The world is defined by rising competition between the US and China. This is a threat to the peace and prosperity of others.

* **US Under Trump:** US policy under President Trump amounts to a revolution, rejecting the principles upon which the US was founded. This includes the end of the Western Alliance.

* **China's Rise:** China is a major power in technology, trade, and military power and seeks to dominate its region and destabilize the West.

* **Need for International Cooperation:** Other international actors need to defend existing international institutions and create new ones.

* **UK's Role:** The UK needs to develop a clearer strategy to safeguard its interests with respect to the US, China and the European Union.

* **The Importance of Geopolitics:** It is the job of these bodies like Chatham House to think about change in the international order and to help shape its future.

* **The importance of protecting the role of law:** The world needs to uphold the power of international law and combact lawlessness.

3. Detailed Notes:

**I. Introduction (0:00:00 - 0:01:13)**

* The annual director's lecture is the fourth since 2023.

* The event's popularity reflects public interest, concern, and anxiety about the state of the world.

* Chatham House's focus is on change in the international order and how to shape its future.

**II. Context: A World in Flux (0:01:13 - 0:03:55)**

* The speaker recalls a conversation where an American panelist replied "What order?" to a question about the international order.

* Last year's lecture occurred just before the second inauguration of Donald Trump, marking a year of significant change.

* The Chatham House team is commended for exceptional work in analyzing and explaining events.

* The lecture will focus on China, the US, and how other international actors should respond.

**III. Bronwen Maddox's Lecture (0:03:55 - 0:06:14)**

* The speaker highlights the tumultuous times, referencing current events like the situations in Iran and Venezuela.

* The focus will be on how much things have changed in the past year.

* The speaker gave this talk a year ago, when it was two weeks before Donald Trump became president for the second time.

* She also discussed that a week before China released Deepseek, showing that it was the equal of the US in artificial intelligence.

* Most attention is on the first.

* Trump's actions represent a revolution, giving the US a new role in the world.

* This rejects government accountability to the people, and dismissed international law and allies which has brought about the end of the Western Alliance.

* There has also been hugely significant change in China including military aggression around Taiwan, support of Russia in the war against Ukraine, and a strategy of dominating world trade.

* China can force the US to back down by threatening to withhold critical minerals.

* The world faces rising competition of two superpowers.

* Their competition for power is a threat to peace and prosperity.

* Superpowers have to defend themselves against the US and the possibility of trade and security.

* The speaker outlines how smaller countries have a chance to play both sides, make new alliances, access technology, and stand up for principles.

* The lecture will address:

* China's advancements in technology

* The implications of Trump's actions in the US

* How others should respond, protect interests, salvage the international order, and the value of the order based on liberal values.

**IV. China: A Technological Powerhouse (0:06:14 - 0:09:49)**

* China has become the leading exporter of electric vehicles, overtaking the US in manufacturing, technology, and military.

* It has surpassed the US in artificial intelligence.

* China has pursued technological supremacy through various means, including mineral deals, loans, sending students abroad, and currency manipulation.

* The speaker mentions intellectual property theft accusations by the Five Eyes countries.

* China's progress may not be sustainable due to economic challenges, internal competition, currency pressures, and a demographic crisis.

* China seeks domination of its region, self-sufficiency in technology, and to make other countries dependent.

* China seeks to destabilize the West, including allies of the US and Japan, by supporting Russia and using the trade routes.

* China wants a greater role in world institutions.

* China prioritizes investments in the Middle East and Ukraine.

**V. The United States: A Revolution Under Trump (0:09:49 - 0:15:04)**

* Trump's second presidency has brought disruptive policies.

* The US under Trump marks the end of the Western Alliance.

* The US has levied higher tariffs against allies than rivals.

* His administration has disparaged Europe and its allies.

* His administration has adopted Russia's view of the Ukraine invasion.

* It has attacked Europe and the UK and equated the US's interests with those of its tech giants.

* The monetization of the presidency is a threat to US institutions.

* There has been a rejection of international law.

* The US's actions in Venezuela have been cited as an example.

* The president has expressed intentions to acquire Greenland, which would be a flagrant offense against the UN charter.

* Members of NATO are forced to contemplate how they might have to defend themselves against the US.

* Trump is right on some things: Europe's defense spending, voters' concerns about immigration, the efforts to resolve wars.

* He is deeply wrong on many things and is weakening the US because of it.

* Trump's mistakes include the belief the US will prosper from scrapping the world it helped build.

* The economic impact of tariffs is concerning.

* The financial crisis risks of losing confidence in US institutions is rising.

* The US makes profound mistakes in trying to counter China,

* The national security strategy assumes the US can prize Russia away from China and does not want conflict over Taiwan.

**VI. How Others Should Respond: Defending and Shaping the World Order (0:15:04 - 0:19:52)**

* The world should defend existing institutions and create new ones.

* The UN can still be used to express censure and address global issues.

* Ghana's President John Muhammad is leading international cooperation.

* The International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC) are still functioning.

* The IMF and the World Bank are essential for economic stability.

* The World Trade Organization (WTO) and the CPTPP are still in use.

* Regional blocks have new responsibilities as the global order unravels.

* It is a crucial year for Europe and Ukraine.

* The EU's concerns include trade and help for Ukraine.

* The EU as a trading block needs to be able to make decisions on these things.

* ASEAN has done little to head off the Thailand Cambodia clash.

**VII. The UK's Position (0:19:52 - 0:25:59)**

* The UK has performed a balancing act of some agility and should put itself in a position to be tougher with the US and China.

* The UK needs to cut welfare to pay for defense.

* The UK needs to get clarity on decisions.

**VIII. Conclusion (0:25:59 - 0:26:46)**

* This is not a comfortable picture.

* It is impossible to rule out the global catastrophe of a US-China war.

* There is a lot that other countries can do to protect themselves and stabilize the world.

* There is much that they can do particularly for the US's one time allies and the UK to explain to the American public in this crucial election year the consequences of the administration's choices.